US presidential election periodically cause tides of optimism among those who hope that the return to the White House of the president from the Democratic Party and the most radical “hawks” from the Barack Obama administration will lead the US to focus again on the fight against Russia. By and large, dreams of this kind (which are very pleasant for some Kiev politicians and analysts, as well as for Russian xenopatriots of the United States, who sincerely hate Russia and their own fellow citizens) boil down to the formula “Biden will return the blessed 2014”, and then to this According to the formula, depending on the specific taste and imagination of the dreamer, “hellish sanctions” or even an attack on Crimea by the forces of the US Sixth Fleet are added. Predicting the results of American elections is a thankless task, especially since there is a very high probability that
Let’s start with the obvious: the opinion of Biden himself does not matter, because he is, by and large, a walking political corpse, pumped up with drugs and PR in order to attract the maximum number of votes of Americans who miss the “Obama era normalcy” and dream (like some Kiev and Russian analysts) about a return to 2014. In the event of a successful seizure of power by the Democrats, the country will not be ruled by President Biden, but by a kind of shadow (or not very shadow) “Politburo” of the Democratic Party, which will have a whole series of internal problems and external challenges that will not be very easy to cope with.
Russia The Democratic Party of the United States and especially representatives of that segment of the American elite that lost the 2016 elections will continue to hate sincerely and selflessly, however, with the return of America in particular and the whole world in general in the conditional 2014 or early 2016, there will be very serious difficulties. Truly complex systems, especially those influenced by several independent actors at once, cannot be returned to some previous state with a mouse click, as ancient thinkers warned about, who noted the impossibility of “entering the same river twice”.
If you look at the prospects of the Biden administration through the eyes of the most ardent and most fully informed supporters of Biden himself, that is, the journalists of the party publication of the US Democratic Party The New York Times , it turns out that the new administration will have a more serious problem than confrontation with Russia.
The newspaper’s analysts describe in great detail how much the relations between Washington and Beijing have deteriorated during the Trump presidency, and state that American officials “are pushing relations between the United States and China to the point of no return,” but at the same time they emphasize that some “Chinese aggression”. Moreover, they state that the fight against China as an adversary to the United States is likely to become an important element of the foreign policy of the Biden administration, because the entire American elite is now in favor of a tough confrontation with Beijing – regardless of party affiliation, as well as sympathies or antipathies for Trump. …
“Relations (between the US and China. – Ed.) May not change even if former Vice President Joseph Biden defeats Mr. Trump in November. The idea of orienting American politics towards competing with China has enjoyed strong bipartisan support over the past three and a half years. …
The initial mishandling of the coronavirus outbreak by the Chinese government, as well as the actions of (Chinese authorities – Ed.) In Hong Kong, widely regarded as a beacon of liberal values in China, have become iconic moments this year, contributing to a tectonic shift in attitudes across America. the political spectrum. “Anti-China hawks” in the presidential administration have seized on them to advance their point of view: that the Chinese Communist Party is seeking to spread its ideology and authoritarian vision around the world and that citizens of liberal countries must face the danger and prepare for a conflict that could last for decades. ” according to the authors of The New York Times.
There is a distinct feeling that the American political elite has come to a collective conclusion: the country badly needs another cold war. This means that the conflict within the United States itself is now for the right to command the country within the framework of this new Cold War. China is objectively better suited as such a “main enemy” than Russia, for at least three reasons.
First, the conflict with China could bring the United States quite real economic bonuses – at least by returning to the United States or at least to the territory friendly to the United States, the industry exported to China over the past decades.
Second: China, at least for the moment, is less dangerous militarily than Russia, and, from the point of view of the Washington hawks, it must be “strangled” right now, that is, before it has time to properly arm itself.
Third: the negative attitude towards China (as opposed to the “Russian issue”) quite unites voters of both parties, and this will be an important factor for the president, who will need to “sew” the country after the elections.
The New York Times assessment is not the only signal indicating an impending escalation of the Cold War between Washington and Beijing in the future. Biden -backing Newsweek praises “its” candidate for the fact that his ambitious plan to support the American economy, while similar to Trump’s plan, is actually better, because Biden’s “Buy American!” Plan repeats Trump’s plan, but at the same time takes aiming at China. “
Experts at the authoritative (and again anti-Trump) magazine Foreign Policy in July publish a detailed story under the headline: “Xinjiang is the most high-tech genocide in the world. The United States must officially recognize the scale of atrocities.”
The American propaganda machine has already started up, politicians are trying on the role of “saving the nation from the Chinese threat”, lobbyists and Pentagon contractors are calculating future profits. Regardless of who wins the elections in November, the United States will definitely get a cold (or if it’s not lucky, hot) war with China, and there will be no return to 2014. And with regard to Russia, the new (or old) presidential administration will simply have to decide whether the United States should open another front against itself in the geopolitical confrontation. Unfortunately, most likely, the United States will choose the option of a conflict against all, which will destabilize the entire world in the short term, but will provide a completely predictable and unpleasant ending for Washington in the long term.